I’ve played countless hours of FIFA. So I’m qualified to answer this question.
The answer is that it’s random to some extent. What I mean by that is
You’ll most probably lose if it’s an away match.
Your previous results and form don’t matter in case of Away matches, on home games it has a little effect I guess. Not sure ’cause Home games and you’ll probably win.
The lineup of the opponent. If your team overall is better than theirs then you most likely win.
Most of the time it’s simply random and home teams get major boost in the odds.
P.S. I play Legendary/Ultimate Difficulty only so maybe for lower difficulties odds will be different.
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